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USA:USDA predicts drop in cotton output for 2005-06 |
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2005-3-3
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Last year was a record cotton crop reaped in most of the cotton producing countries, but this year the picture may be slightly different.
World cotton output is expected to fall by 14 million bales to 103 million bales in 2005, says United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Comparing the forecast with last years cotton output, a 14-million-bale decrease would be the largest decline ever and the largest percentage decline (12 percent) since 1992-93.
As per James Johnson, Agricultural Economist with USDA’s Economics Research Service, who delivered the USDA’s 2005 forecast for cotton at the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum said that to say the 2004 crop caught most analysts by surprise would be an understatement.
"When I look back at what we were forecasting at this time last year – 103 million bales for the world and 18 million bales for the United States – it gives me some pause about making forecasts for this year," said Johnson. "We all know now that world production actually reached 116.7 million bales and U.S., 23 million bales."
USDA estimates put 3 percent rise I world cotton consumption to 109 million bales in 2005-06, which could help reduce world cotton stocks by 12 percent to 41 million bales and the world stocks-to-use ratio to just under 38 percent. |
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