1 July 2005 -  A crucial vote last night in the US senate saw senators give their thumbs up to CAFTA - the Central American Free Trade Agreement. The battle will now pass to the House in July where the outcome is expected to be closer than that in the Senate where the vote was eventually won 54-45.

Just a day after the Senate Finance Committee voted to send CAFTA to the full Senate, a close vote eventually gave the bill the green light. It will now come under scrutiny in the House of Representatives after the 4 July holiday.

President Bush was personally "appreciative" of the bipartisan support in the Senate which saw ten Democrats and an Independent join 43 Republicans in voting for the pact. This ensured its successful passage after heated debate.

An uncertain passage in the House

Although supporters of CAFTA are clearly delighted that the Senate has given its support, a trickier time beckons in the House where it is far from certain that the pact will succeed in gaining the support it needs.

The margin of victory in the Senate was significantly smaller than for previous free trade agreements with countries such as Australia and Chile. The dissent of 12 Republican Senators voting against the pact weakened the majority. A concerned U.S. Trade Representative, Rob Portman, however attempted to alleviate worries for its passage in the House. He said "We received more Democratic support than anyone expected".

According to one Democratic Representative, Ben Cardin, CAFTA will fail in the House should members vote the way they have expressed themselves.

Some estimations predict that around 190 Democrats and 40 Republicans in the House may vote against CAFTA thus more than the 218 votes to ensure its defeat.

Realising this, the Bush administration has been busy in shoring up wavering voters by promising a range of deals to appease unhappy Representatives.

Bill Thomas, Chairman of the influential House Ways and Means Committee, believes this will ensure enough votes for in support although he predicted the result will be close.

A barrier to Chinese competition

Supporters hope to press their point that CAFTA would strengthen the area in face of Chinese exports, notably in textiles where Central America predominantly uses U.S. cotton. The White House believes that by removing trade barriers between the U.S. and Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, 44 million consumers of American products would help boost U.S. exports.

This is a sentiment shared by the two North Carolina Senators Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, who voted in favour of the agreement last night. Dole said that CAFTA now contains provisions that addresses the concerns of the textile industry. Burr added "I am pleased that the side agreements addressed my initial concerns about CAFTA''s textile provisions" .