KARACHI: Agriculture authorities and researchers see cotton production declining sharply this season, which touched all-time high last fiscal, mainly due to a fall in per acre yield and decreased sowing area.

A top official said the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) met last month and was convinced that the production could fall to 12.5 million bales against the set target of 15 million bales.

"The assessment was actually based on feedback from the ginning factories and growers," said Dr Ibad Badr Siddiqui, vice president of the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee.

"Another meeting of the cotton assessment committee is due within the next few weeks, which may further deliberate the matter. But the overall situation suggests that we would succeed to get 12 million-12.5 million bales this season."

He said the government fixed the target following a good output last season and foresaw around 15 million by the end of current season, but the decrease in production area had made it almost impossible to achieve the target.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture in March this year approved 12 million bales target for 2004-05, but inspired by the last season's production later enhanced it to 15 million bales.

But the current situation paints an alarming situation both for the government and the textile industry as in case of lower local production the industry would have to plan higher imports amid rising international prices of the commodity.

"A recent report compiled by the PCGA (Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association) has hinted at decline in cotton production," said Dr Siddiqui.

He said the trend was likely to continue, as ginners were not receiving such quantity of the commodity, as they had been last season, which ended with an all-time high cotton crop.

The country's cotton crop is planted in May, and harvesting starts in August. The federally-administered PCCC oversees cotton research and production data in the country.

For 2005-06, the government had fixed cotton plantation in over three million hectares. The official estimates show that last season's crop was sown on 3.21 million hectares, which was around 2.23 percent higher than its actual target.

The national average yield in 2004-05 remained at 773 kilogrammes a hectare as against the target of 580 kilogrammes, which proved it was 33 percent higher than the target, due to favourable weather throughout the season. But the current season has not a lot to offer.

"This year's yield has been registered at around 669 kilogrammes a hectare," said Haji Nisar Khan, a ginner and a senior member of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association.

"The government was right in setting a target 15 million bales, but delayed harvesting of some of the crops and farmers' interest in other crops faded the scope of better production this year."

He said a total of 4.737 million bales of cotton had reached ginning factories till Nov 1 compared with last year's 6.258 million bales, showing a decline of 24.30 percent.

"In 20 cotton-growing districts of Punjab, a total of 3.33 million bales arrived at factories compared with last year's 4.82 million bales on the same date. So the crop has shown a steep shortfall of 48.11 percent," he added.

Similarly, Mr Khan, said in nine districts of Sindh, the production had been estimated so far at 1.44 million bales compared with last year's 1.43 million bales, showing a nominal decrease in output.

Dailytimes.com.pk