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Global cotton mill use reduced - USDA |
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2011-12-16
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2011/12 indicate that world cotton consumption is now expected to decrease 2.5 percent from last season as the global economy remains sluggish. This season’s expected decline follows a 4-percent reduction last season as cotton prices reached unprecedented levels and has forced fiber substitution at some mills.
At 111.3 million bales, 2011/12 global cotton mill use is 10 percent below the peak established in 2006/07. China and India, the world’s largest spinners, are leading the decline in global mill use in 2011/12. However, with mill use expected to rise in Pakistan this season, the combined share of world mill use for the three countries remains similar to last season’s 67 percent and is above the 65-percent share achieved in 2006/07. China continues to dominate cotton spinning, accounting for at least 40 percent of the total since 2006/07.
World 2011/12 Production Forecast at a Record High
Global 2011/12 cotton production is forecast at 123.4 million bales, up 7 percent from a year ago. Although the expected global crop has been revised downward from the previous month’s forecast due to weakening prices, it remains a record forecast production.
Several major producers anticipate a bumper harvest. The major southern hemisphere producers, Australia and Brazil, are forecast to produce 5.0 million bales and 9.0 million bales in 2011/12, respectively. While the 2011/12 forecast leaves Brazil’s crop unchanged from the previous year, it represents a 19-percent increase in Australia. Australia’s 2011/12 harvested area is expected to increase 2 percent to 600,000 hectares, up 2 percent from a year ago, while yields are expected to grow 17 percent to 1,814 kg/ha, as more area is likely to be irrigated.
China, the world’s leading cotton producer, is expected to grow 33.5 million bales in 2011/12, up 10 percent from the previous year and accounting for 27 percent of global production. China’s forecast 2011/12 production rebound is driven mostly by anticipated harvested area, which is forecast to increase 7 percent to 5.5 million hectares in 2011/12.
India and Pakistan are expected to produce 27.5 million bales and 10.0 million bales in 2011/12, an increase of 8 percent and 14 percent, respectively, from the preceding year. Harvested area in India and Pakistan is expected to rise 10 percent to 12.2 million hectares and 3.2 million hectares in 2011/12, respectively, from the previous year.
In the United States, the 2011/12 crop is expected to decline 13 percent to 15.8 million bales, from a year ago. Uzbekistan’s 2011/12 crop is forecast at 4.2 million bales, up 2 percent from the previous year. The world total 2011/12 harvested cotton area is forecast to increase 7 percent to 35.8 million hectares, from a year ago. Global 2011/12 yields are projected at 751 kg/ha, nearly unchanged from the previous year.
World Cotton Trade To Rise in 2011/12
Global 2011/12 cotton exports are forecast at 36.6 million bales, an increase of 3 percent from the previous year due mainly to rising production in several producing countries. Brazil’s 2011/12 exports are expected to nearly double to 3.8 million bales. For Australia, 2011/12 cotton exports are forecast at 4.0 million bales, up 59 percent from the preceding year.
India is expected to export 6.0 million bales in 2011/12, up 18 percent from a year ago. Uzbekistan’s 2011/12 exports are expected to rise 4 percent to 2.75 million bales in 2011/12, up 4 percent from a year ago. The United States, the leading global exporter of the fiber, is expected to export 11.3 million bales in 2011/12, down 21 percent from a year earlier.
China, the world’s top cotton importer, is forecast to import 15.5 million bales in 2011/12, an increase of 29 percent from the previous year, and the second highest on record. China has been importing vigorously to meet its stock accumulation goals. In 2011/12, Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.3 million bales and 2.1 million bales, respectively, down 12 percent and 2 percent from the previous year.
Imports in Pakistan and Turkey are also forecast to decline 3 percent and 25 percent, to 1.4 million bales and 2.5 million bales, respectively, from a year earlier. Although import declines are expected in several importing countries, these reductions are more than offset by increased import demand in China.
Global Mill Use To Decline Further in 2011/12
World 2011/12 cotton consumption is forecast to decline 2.5 percent from a year ago to 111.3 million bales, due mainly to unfavorable global economic conditions and cotton’s relatively low share of fiber demand. Several major mill users are expected to reduce consumption.
China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, is forecast to consume 45.0 million bales in 2011/12, down 2 percent from the previous year. India is expected to consume 19.5 million bales in 2011/12, a 6- percent decline from the preceding year and the lowest mill use in 3 years. Turkey and the United States are expected to consume 5.3 million bales and 3.6 million bales in 2011/12, down 5 percent and 8 percent, respectively, from a year ago.
Pakistan is the only major consumer in which 2011/12 mill use is expected to increase. Pakistan’s cotton consumption is forecast at 10.3 million bales, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier, due mainly to larger domestic supplies.
Global 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast to increase 27 percent to 57.7 million bales. This forecast will represent a major rebound from the previous 2 years when stocks plummeted due to a combination of declining production and rising consumption.
In 2011/12, the opposite phenomenon (rising production and declining consumption) is expected to result in a rebound in ending stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 52 percent in 2011/12. Not surprisingly, cotton prices, as measured by Cotlook’s A-index, have declined since 2010/11.
Source:fibre2fashion
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